| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 41.7% | 42% | +0.1% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 75.0% | 77% | -2.4% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 54.7% | 56% | -1.5% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.1% | 66% | +2.5% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 67.4% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 38.1% | 24.9% | 37.0% |
| xgboost | 36.8% | 25.8% | 37.4% |
| logistic | 27.6% | 27.8% | 44.6% |
| Excelsior | Go Ahead Eagles | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1471 | 1513 |
| Surface Elo | 1471 | 1513 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| Form trend | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 1.27 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.45 | 2.09 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.55 | 2.45 |
| Rest days | 6 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 4 W · 1 D |
| 01 Nov | H | Twente | 0 - 9 | L |
| 01 Nov | H | Twente | 0 - 9 | L |
| 28 Oct | H | Heerenveen | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Oct | A | MVV Maastricht | 3 - 0 | W |
| 27 Oct | H | Den Haag | 1 - 1 | D |
| 31 Oct | A | Cambuur | 0 - 4 | L |
| 27 Oct | A | Koninklijke HFC | 5 - 0 | W |
| 23 Oct | H | Telstar | 3 - 2 | W |
| 23 Oct | H | Telstar | 3 - 2 | W |
| 18 Oct | A | Zwolle | 1 - 4 | L |
| 01 Mar 2026 | Excelsior | 0 - 1 | Go Ahead Eagles |
| 26 Oct 2025 | Go Ahead Eagles | 2 - 0 | Excelsior |
| 30 Mar 2024 | Go Ahead Eagles | 3 - 0 | Excelsior |
| 16 Dec 2023 | Excelsior | 1 - 1 | Go Ahead Eagles |
| 14 Apr 2023 | Excelsior | 2 - 1 | Go Ahead Eagles |
| 29 Oct 2022 | Go Ahead Eagles | 3 - 1 | Excelsior |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 2.70 | 37.0% | 07 Nov 20:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.50 | 28.6% | 07 Nov 20:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 2.45 | 40.8% | 07 Nov 20:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.57 | 63.7% | 07 Nov 20:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.35 | 42.5% | 07 Nov 20:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.46 | 40.6% | 07 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.77 | 26.5% | 07 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.79 | 35.8% | 07 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.55 | 64.5% | 07 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.50 | 40.0% | 07 Nov 06:15 |