| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 54.0% | 62% | -8.1% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 80.5% | 86% | -5.4% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 72.2% | 80% | -7.9% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.0% | 61% | -6.0% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 53.1% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 48.7% | 25.9% | 25.4% |
| xgboost | 53.7% | 24.9% | 21.4% |
| logistic | 61.7% | 23.3% | 15.0% |
| Chesterfield | Crewe | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1505 | 1489 |
| Surface Elo | 1505 | 1489 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Form trend | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| Season points per game | 1.33 | 1.83 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.67 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.33 | 1.17 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 3 W · 1 D |
| 20 Oct | H | Colchester | 1 - 1 | D |
| 20 Oct | H | Colchester | 1 - 1 | D |
| 17 Oct | A | Port Vale | 0 - 1 | L |
| 17 Oct | A | Port Vale | 0 - 1 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Crawley Town | 2 - 2 | D |
| 20 Oct | A | Exeter | 0 - 2 | L |
| 20 Oct | A | Exeter City | 0 - 2 | L |
| 17 Oct | H | Rochdale | 3 - 2 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | Rochdale | 3 - 2 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Swindon | 1 - 0 | W |
| 25 Apr 2026 | Chesterfield | 2 - 0 | Crewe |
| 22 Nov 2025 | Crewe | 3 - 3 | Chesterfield |
| 01 Mar 2025 | Chesterfield | 1 - 3 | Crewe |
| 17 Aug 2024 | Crewe | 0 - 5 | Chesterfield |
| 26 Dec 2017 | Chesterfield | 0 - 2 | Crewe |
| 09 Sep 2017 | Crewe | 5 - 1 | Chesterfield |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 5.00 | 20.0% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.20 | 23.8% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.61 | 62.1% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.64 | 61.0% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.20 | 45.5% | 23 Oct 06:15 |