| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 59.9% | 31% | +29.2% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Draw or away | 83.6% | 57% | +26.5% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 76.9% | 41% | +36.2% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45.7% | 72% | -26.2% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 46.5% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 18.8% | 21.8% | 59.4% |
| xgboost | 25.2% | 25.2% | 49.5% |
| logistic | 20.3% | 28.0% | 51.7% |
| Dumbarton | Kilmarnock | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1322 | 1595 |
| Surface Elo | 1322 | 1595 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | -0.50 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 19 Sep | H | Spartans | 3 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Spartans | 3 - 0 | W |
| 12 Sep | A | Stranraer | 1 - 3 | L |
| 05 Sep | H | Elgin | 2 - 1 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | Annan Athletic | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | Hearts | 1 - 1 | D |
| 19 Sep | H | Heart of Midlothian FC | 1 - 1 | D |
| 15 Sep | A | Hibernian | 1 - 0 | W |
| 05 Sep | A | Aberdeen | 0 - 0 | D |
| 02 Sep | H | St Mirren | 0 - 1 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.25 | 30.8% | 22 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.80 | 26.3% | 22 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.97 | 50.8% | 22 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.39 | 71.9% | 22 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.85 | 35.1% | 22 Sep 06:15 |