| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 38.9% | 43% | -3.9% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 72.1% | 76% | -4.3% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 53.9% | 59% | -5.3% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 56.0% | 52% | +4.3% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 48.4% | 33% | +15.1% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 35.1% | 26.9% | 38.0% |
| xgboost | 37.2% | 26.3% | 36.4% |
| logistic | 27.4% | 30.4% | 42.3% |
| AFC Wimbledon | Milton Keynes Dons | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1438 | 1520 |
| Surface Elo | 1438 | 1520 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| Form trend | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.67 | 0.83 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.83 | 1.33 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.17 | 1.67 |
| Rest days | 5 | 5 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 4 W · 4 D |
| 12 Sep | H | Doncaster | 1 - 0 | W |
| 07 Sep | A | Bromley | 2 - 0 | W |
| 02 Sep | A | Burton | 1 - 4 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | Wigan | 1 - 0 | W |
| 22 Aug | H | Reading | 0 - 0 | D |
| 12 Sep | H | Peterboro | 1 - 1 | D |
| 05 Sep | A | Wycombe | 3 - 3 | D |
| 02 Sep | A | Wigan | 1 - 3 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | Leicester | 0 - 0 | D |
| 22 Aug | H | Huddersfield | 1 - 1 | D |
| 25 Jan 2025 | Milton Keynes Dons | 0 - 0 | AFC Wimbledon |
| 14 Sep 2024 | AFC Wimbledon | 3 - 0 | Milton Keynes Dons |
| 02 Mar 2024 | AFC Wimbledon | 1 - 0 | Milton Keynes Dons |
| 23 Jan 2024 | Milton Keynes Dons | 3 - 1 | AFC Wimbledon |
| 09 Apr 2022 | AFC Wimbledon | 1 - 1 | Milton Keynes Dons |
| 11 Jan 2022 | Milton Keynes Dons | 1 - 0 | AFC Wimbledon |
| 30 Jan 2021 | AFC Wimbledon | 0 - 2 | Milton Keynes Dons |
| 31 Oct 2020 | Milton Keynes Dons | 1 - 1 | AFC Wimbledon |
| 07 Sep 2019 | Milton Keynes Dons | 2 - 1 | AFC Wimbledon |
| 13 Jan 2018 | Milton Keynes Dons | 0 - 0 | AFC Wimbledon |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 2.25 | 44.4% | 17 Sep 20:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.20 | 31.2% | 17 Sep 20:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 3.10 | 32.3% | 17 Sep 20:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.05 | 48.8% | 17 Sep 20:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.75 | 57.1% | 17 Sep 20:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.40 | 41.7% | 17 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.50 | 28.6% | 17 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.90 | 34.5% | 17 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.84 | 54.4% | 17 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.93 | 51.8% | 17 Sep 06:15 |