| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 56.8% | 60% | -3.5% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 53.0% | 47.0% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 59.8% | 40.1% |
| logistic | 55.5% | 44.5% |
| August Holmgren | Pedro Martinez | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1638 | 1590 |
| Surface Elo | 1638 | 1590 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.90 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.67 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 4 | 13 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 05 Oct | H | Pedro Martinez | 1 - 2 | L |
| 02 Oct | H | Henrique Rocha | 0 - 2 | L |
| 01 Oct | H | Andrea Guerrieri | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Benjamin Bonzi | 1 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Henrique Rocha | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Laslo Djere | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Pablo Llamas Ruiz | 1 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Daniel Rincon | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | August Holmgren | 2 - 1 | W |
| 22 Sep | A | Eduardo Ribeiro | 0 - 1 | L |
| 05 Oct 2026 | August Holmgren | 1 - 2 | Pedro Martinez |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.98 | 50.5% | 06 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.77 | 56.5% | 06 Oct 06:15 |