| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 73.1% | 89% | -16.2% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 73.5% | 26.5% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 83.0% | 16.9% |
| logistic | 71.6% | 28.4% |
| Nicolas Kicker | Thiago Cigarran | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1624 | 1367 |
| Surface Elo | 1624 | 1367 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 2.25 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 0.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 04 Oct | H | Milledge Cossu | 2 - 0 | W |
| 25 Sep | A | Facundo Mena | 0 - 2 | L |
| 23 Sep | H | Hugo Dellien | 2 - 1 | W |
| 22 Sep | A | Tomas Martinez | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Facundo Mena | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Miguel Tobon | 1 - 2 | L |
| 04 Oct | A | Anders Matta | 1 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Tomas Martinez | 0 - 1 | L |
| 17 Aug | A | Lorenzo Giustino | 0 - 2 | L |
| 22 Jun | A | Santiago Rodriguez Taverna | 1 - 2 | L |
| 16 Mar 2026 | Nicolas Kicker | 1 - 2 | Thiago Cigarran |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 5.60 | 17.9% | 05 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.12 | 89.3% | 05 Oct 06:15 |