| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 48.5% | 43% | +6.0% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 74.9% | 76% | -1.4% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 61.6% | 59% | +3.0% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 50.1% | 49% | +0.8% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 52.9% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 25.8% | 29.2% | 45.1% |
| xgboost | 38.9% | 24.8% | 36.4% |
| logistic | 32.7% | 29.8% | 37.5% |
| Watford | Burnley | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1452 | 1505 |
| Surface Elo | 1452 | 1505 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.88 | 1.13 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.25 | 2.13 |
| Rest days | 21 | 21 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 5 W · 3 D |
| 18 Sep | A | Bristol City | 0 - 1 | L |
| 12 Sep | H | Stoke | 1 - 2 | L |
| 08 Sep | H | Preston | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Sep | A | West Brom | 0 - 1 | L |
| 01 Sep | A | Swansea | 0 - 2 | L |
| 09 Oct | H | Preston North End | 2 - 2 | D |
| 19 Sep | H | Derby | 1 - 1 | D |
| 19 Sep | H | Derby | 1 - 1 | D |
| 12 Sep | A | Swansea | 1 - 3 | L |
| 08 Sep | A | Wrexham | 1 - 1 | D |
| 18 Apr 2025 | Watford | 1 - 2 | Burnley |
| 21 Dec 2024 | Burnley | 2 - 1 | Watford |
| 14 Feb 2023 | Burnley | 1 - 1 | Watford |
| 12 Aug 2022 | Watford | 1 - 0 | Burnley |
| 30 Apr 2022 | Watford | 1 - 2 | Burnley |
| 05 Feb 2022 | Burnley | 0 - 0 | Watford |
| 25 Jun 2020 | Burnley | 1 - 0 | Watford |
| 23 Nov 2019 | Watford | 0 - 3 | Burnley |
| 19 Jan 2019 | Watford | 0 - 0 | Burnley |
| 19 Aug 2018 | Burnley | 1 - 3 | Watford |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 2.25 | 44.4% | 10 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.50 | 28.6% | 10 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 2.85 | 35.1% | 10 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.73 | 57.8% | 10 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.10 | 47.6% | 10 Oct 15:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.52 | 39.7% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.54 | 28.2% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.85 | 35.1% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.81 | 55.2% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.05 | 48.8% | 10 Oct 06:15 |