| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 62.7% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 55.8% | 44.2% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 69.6% | 30.3% |
| logistic | 64.5% | 35.5% |
| Novak Djokovic | Alex De Minaur | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 2133 | 1997 |
| Surface Elo | 2133 | 1997 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.75 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 3 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 06 Oct | A | Alex De Minaur | 1 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Daniil Medvedev | 2 - 0 | W |
| 04 Oct | A | Alexander Zverev | 2 - 1 | W |
| 04 Oct | A | Alexander Zverev | 2 - 1 | W |
| 02 Oct | A | Bu Yunchaokete | 2 - 1 | W |
| 06 Oct | H | Novak Djokovic | 0 - 1 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Hubert Hurkacz | 1 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Hubert Hurkacz | 1 - 0 | W |
| 04 Oct | H | Andrey Rublev | 2 - 1 | W |
| 04 Oct | H | Andrey Rublev | 2 - 1 | W |
| 06 Oct 2026 | Alex De Minaur | 0 - 1 | Novak Djokovic |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Alex De Minaur | 1 - 3 | Novak Djokovic |
| 08 Apr 2024 | Alex De Minaur | 0 - 2 | Novak Djokovic |
| 01 Jan 2024 | Alex De Minaur | 2 - 0 | Novak Djokovic |
| 16 Jan 2023 | Alex De Minaur | 0 - 3 | Novak Djokovic |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No bookmaker lines stored. | |||||