| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 45.1% | 15% | +29.9% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 75.7% | 89% | -13.7% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 58.7% | 18% | +40.4% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 51.4% | 27% | +24.6% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 49.6% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 22.4% | 25.1% | 52.5% |
| xgboost | 40.0% | 20.8% | 39.2% |
| logistic | 32.4% | 28.5% | 39.0% |
| Grimsby | Nottingham Forest | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1493 | 1681 |
| Surface Elo | 1493 | 1681 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| Form trend | -0.90 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| Rest days | 10 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 08 Nov | A | Stafford Rangers | 2 - 2 | D |
| 31 Oct | H | York | 5 - 2 | W |
| 31 Oct | H | York | 5 - 2 | W |
| 24 Oct | A | Gillingham | 4 - 1 | W |
| 24 Oct | A | Gillingham | 4 - 1 | W |
| 07 Nov | H | Manchester City | 3 - 1 | W |
| 07 Nov | H | Manchester City | 3 - 1 | W |
| 03 Nov | A | Halifax | 4 - 3 | W |
| 31 Oct | A | Brentford | 0 - 2 | L |
| 31 Oct | A | Brentford | 0 - 2 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 6.40 | 15.6% | 10 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 5.50 | 18.2% | 10 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.37 | 73.0% | 10 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.24 | 80.7% | 10 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 3.90 | 25.6% | 10 Nov 06:15 |