| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 51.1% | 48% | +3.2% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 78.4% | 77% | +1.5% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 64.1% | 65% | -0.4% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.0% | 65% | +0.2% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 65.7% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 19.1% | 20.4% | 60.5% |
| xgboost | 33.7% | 18.2% | 48.2% |
| logistic | 31.9% | 26.3% | 41.8% |
| Monza | Atalanta | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1547 | 1673 |
| Surface Elo | 1547 | 1673 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| Season points per game | 0.70 | 1.10 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.70 | 1.60 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 8 | 5 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 6 W · 0 D |
| 31 Oct | A | Bologna | 1 - 2 | L |
| 31 Oct | A | Bologna | 1 - 2 | L |
| 28 Oct | H | Napoli | 1 - 4 | L |
| 28 Oct | H | Napoli | 1 - 4 | L |
| 23 Oct | A | Torino | 2 - 3 | L |
| 07 Nov | H | Reggiana | 4 - 3 | W |
| 05 Nov | H | FC Kairat Almaty | 1 - 1 | D |
| 02 Nov | H | Parma | 0 - 3 | L |
| 01 Nov | A | Spezia | 1 - 2 | L |
| 29 Oct | A | Fiorentina | 2 - 2 | D |
| 04 May 2025 | Monza | 0 - 4 | Atalanta |
| 30 Oct 2024 | Atalanta | 2 - 0 | Monza |
| 21 Apr 2024 | Monza | 1 - 2 | Atalanta |
| 02 Sep 2023 | Atalanta | 3 - 0 | Monza |
| 04 Jun 2023 | Atalanta | 5 - 2 | Monza |
| 05 Sep 2022 | Monza | 0 - 2 | Atalanta |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 1.95 | 51.3% | 08 Nov 14:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.80 | 26.3% | 08 Nov 14:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 3.75 | 26.7% | 08 Nov 14:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.50 | 66.7% | 08 Nov 14:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.63 | 38.0% | 08 Nov 14:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.08 | 48.1% | 08 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.99 | 25.1% | 08 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.47 | 28.8% | 08 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.48 | 67.6% | 08 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.75 | 36.4% | 08 Nov 06:15 |