| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 52.9% | 57% | -4.1% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 79.7% | 83% | -3.5% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 70.7% | 77% | -6.0% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.2% | 49% | +12.4% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 59.8% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 47.0% | 27.7% | 25.3% |
| xgboost | 56.4% | 23.5% | 20.1% |
| logistic | 55.6% | 24.9% | 19.5% |
| Alaves | Malaga | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1591 | 1525 |
| Surface Elo | 1591 | 1525 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Season points per game | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| Rest days | 5 | 5 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 3 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 18 Oct | A | Celta | 1 - 2 | L |
| 18 Oct | A | Celta | 1 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Atlético Madrid | 1 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Atlético Madrid | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Athletic Club | 0 - 0 | D |
| 18 Oct | H | Sociedad | 2 - 5 | L |
| 18 Oct | H | Sociedad | 2 - 5 | L |
| 18 Oct | H | Atletico Mancha Real | 1 - 2 | L |
| 11 Oct | A | Arenas Armilla CD | 1 - 5 | L |
| 09 Oct | H | Espanol | 1 - 1 | D |
| 20 May 2023 | Alaves | 2 - 1 | Malaga |
| 18 Dec 2022 | Malaga | 1 - 0 | Alaves |
| 06 May 2018 | Malaga | 0 - 3 | Alaves |
| 21 Dec 2017 | Alaves | 1 - 0 | Malaga |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 5.66 | 17.7% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.89 | 25.7% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.71 | 58.5% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.05 | 48.8% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.83 | 54.6% | 23 Oct 06:15 |