| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 48.3% | 40% | +8.3% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Draw or away | 74.8% | 69% | +5.8% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 63.5% | 55% | +8.5% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 54.9% | 52% | +2.8% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 51.2% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 29.7% | 28.6% | 41.7% |
| xgboost | 29.9% | 29.5% | 40.6% |
| logistic | 23.6% | 27.9% | 48.6% |
| Port Vale | Chesterfield | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1411 | 1530 |
| Surface Elo | 1411 | 1530 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | 0.40 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.75 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.50 | 2.25 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 1 W · 1 D |
| 10 Oct | H | Grimsby | 1 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Grimsby | 1 - 0 | W |
| 06 Oct | H | Mansfield | 2 - 0 | W |
| 22 Sep | A | Chesterfield | 1 - 1 | D |
| 19 Sep | A | Walsall | 0 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Crawley Town | 2 - 2 | D |
| 10 Oct | A | Crawley Town | 2 - 2 | D |
| 03 Oct | H | Tranmere | 4 - 2 | W |
| 03 Oct | H | Tranmere | 4 - 2 | W |
| 26 Sep | A | Cheltenham | 1 - 2 | L |
| 22 Sep 2026 | Chesterfield | 1 - 1 | Port Vale |
| 25 Jan 2025 | Chesterfield | 1 - 1 | Port Vale |
| 14 Sep 2024 | Port Vale | 1 - 0 | Chesterfield |
| 30 Mar 2018 | Port Vale | 2 - 1 | Chesterfield |
| 19 Aug 2017 | Chesterfield | 2 - 0 | Port Vale |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.50 | 40.0% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.40 | 29.4% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.70 | 37.0% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.82 | 54.9% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.92 | 52.1% | 16 Oct 06:15 |