| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 50.0% | 43% | +7.4% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 75.9% | 74% | +2.1% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 66.4% | 60% | +6.3% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.3% | 48% | +6.7% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 56.5% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 49.5% | 25.6% | 24.8% |
| xgboost | 48.5% | 26.7% | 24.8% |
| logistic | 48.7% | 27.2% | 24.1% |
| Sp Gijon | Valladolid | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1515 | 1400 |
| Surface Elo | 1515 | 1400 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | -0.10 |
| Season points per game | 1.83 | 1.25 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.08 | 1.67 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.08 | 1.58 |
| Rest days | 7 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 3 W · 3 D |
| 01 Nov | A | Ceuta | 2 - 0 | W |
| 25 Oct | A | Castellon | 0 - 4 | L |
| 17 Oct | H | Albacete | 2 - 1 | W |
| 11 Oct | A | Cadiz | 1 - 0 | W |
| 04 Oct | H | Celta B | 3 - 2 | W |
| 02 Nov | H | Leganes | 4 - 3 | W |
| 02 Nov | H | Leganes | 4 - 3 | W |
| 29 Oct | A | CD Covadonga | 1 - 0 | W |
| 23 Oct | A | Granada | 1 - 2 | L |
| 23 Oct | A | Granada | 1 - 2 | L |
| 22 Feb 2026 | Sp Gijon | 2 - 2 | Valladolid |
| 19 Oct 2025 | Valladolid | 2 - 3 | Sp Gijon |
| 17 Feb 2024 | Sp Gijon | 1 - 1 | Valladolid |
| 11 Aug 2023 | Valladolid | 2 - 0 | Sp Gijon |
| 28 Jan 2022 | Valladolid | 1 - 0 | Sp Gijon |
| 23 Oct 2021 | Sp Gijon | 1 - 2 | Valladolid |
| 15 Apr 2018 | Valladolid | 0 - 1 | Sp Gijon |
| 12 Nov 2017 | Sp Gijon | 1 - 1 | Valladolid |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 3.10 | 32.3% | 08 Nov 17:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.25 | 30.8% | 08 Nov 17:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 2.25 | 44.4% | 08 Nov 17:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.05 | 48.8% | 08 Nov 17:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.75 | 57.1% | 08 Nov 17:30 |