| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 46.1% | 44% | +1.6% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 74.4% | 75% | -0.8% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 59.8% | 63% | -3.1% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.8% | 49% | +6.1% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 53.7% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 38.9% | 29.7% | 31.4% |
| xgboost | 43.9% | 27.1% | 29.0% |
| logistic | 43.9% | 27.8% | 28.3% |
| Virtus Entella | Mantova | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1405 | 1487 |
| Surface Elo | 1405 | 1487 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| Form trend | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| Season points per game | 1.29 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.43 | 1.86 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.14 | 1.14 |
| Rest days | 7 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 17 Oct | A | Padova | 2 - 1 | W |
| 17 Oct | A | Padova | 2 - 1 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | Vicenza | 1 - 1 | D |
| 10 Oct | H | Juve Stabia | 1 - 1 | D |
| 10 Oct | H | Juve Stabia | 1 - 1 | D |
| 17 Oct | H | Palermo | 0 - 2 | L |
| 17 Oct | H | Palermo | 0 - 2 | L |
| 11 Oct | A | Catanzaro | 3 - 1 | W |
| 11 Oct | A | Catanzaro | 3 - 1 | W |
| 20 Sep | H | Pisa | 2 - 2 | D |
| 06 Apr 2026 | Mantova | 1 - 0 | Virtus Entella |
| 14 Sep 2025 | Virtus Entella | 1 - 0 | Mantova |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 3.20 | 31.2% | 24 Oct 14:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.20 | 31.2% | 24 Oct 14:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 2.20 | 45.5% | 24 Oct 14:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.00 | 50.0% | 24 Oct 14:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.80 | 55.6% | 24 Oct 14:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.20 | 31.2% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.20 | 31.2% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.30 | 43.5% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.05 | 48.8% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.76 | 56.8% | 24 Oct 06:15 |