| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 75.8% | 85% | -8.9% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 92.0% | 97% | -4.9% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 91.2% | 96% | -5.0% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.5% | 38% | +15.4% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 56.0% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 76.7% | 16.2% | 7.2% |
| xgboost | 81.4% | 11.4% | 7.2% |
| logistic | 76.6% | 17.2% | 6.1% |
| Arsenal | Hull | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1959 | 1597 |
| Surface Elo | 1959 | 1597 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 0.75 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.25 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.25 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 5 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 04 Nov | A | Slavia Prague | 2 - 1 | W |
| 01 Nov | A | Liverpool | 1 - 0 | W |
| 01 Nov | A | Liverpool | 1 - 0 | W |
| 27 Oct | A | Fleetwood Town | 1 - 1 | D |
| 27 Oct | A | AFC Wimbledon | 2 - 1 | W |
| 02 Nov | H | Derby | 1 - 0 | W |
| 31 Oct | H | Ipswich Town U21 | 2 - 2 | D |
| 31 Oct | H | Ipswich | 2 - 2 | D |
| 25 Oct | H | Brentford | 1 - 1 | D |
| 25 Oct | H | Brentford | 1 - 1 | D |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 18.20 | 5.5% | 06 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 8.33 | 12.0% | 06 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.18 | 84.8% | 06 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.51 | 66.2% | 06 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.65 | 37.7% | 06 Nov 06:15 |