| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 56.6% | 63% | -6.3% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 57.9% | 42.1% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 51.5% | 48.5% |
| logistic | 53.2% | 46.8% |
| Tristan Boyer | Sebastian Gorzny | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1626 | 1592 |
| Surface Elo | 1626 | 1592 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 2.40 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 22 Sep | H | Spencer Johnson | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Timo Legout | 1 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | A | Sebastian Gorzny | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Spencer Johnson | 2 - 0 | W |
| 16 Sep | H | Abdullah Shelbayh | 0 - 2 | L |
| 22 Sep | A | Mitchell Krueger | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Aidan Mayo | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Tristan Boyer | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | A | Mitchell Krueger | 2 - 1 | W |
| 18 Sep | A | Wolf, Jeffrey John | 1 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep 2026 | Sebastian Gorzny | 0 - 2 | Tristan Boyer |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.25 | 44.4% | 24 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.59 | 62.9% | 24 Sep 06:15 |