| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 54.7% | 42% | +12.5% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 78.9% | 71% | +8.4% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 70.8% | 57% | +13.5% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 51.8% | 43% | +8.6% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 51.1% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 47.7% | 26.4% | 25.9% |
| xgboost | 58.6% | 21.8% | 19.6% |
| logistic | 57.2% | 25.0% | 17.8% |
| Grimsby | Burton | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1492 | 1478 |
| Surface Elo | 1492 | 1478 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| Form trend | 0.50 | -0.10 |
| Season points per game | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 03 Oct | H | Shrewsbury | 1 - 2 | L |
| 03 Oct | H | Shrewsbury | 1 - 2 | L |
| 26 Sep | A | Newport County | 1 - 2 | L |
| 26 Sep | A | Newport County | 1 - 2 | L |
| 22 Sep | A | Notts County | 1 - 2 | L |
| 03 Oct | H | Huddersfield | 1 - 3 | L |
| 03 Oct | H | Huddersfield | 1 - 3 | L |
| 26 Sep | A | Plymouth | 1 - 0 | W |
| 26 Sep | A | Plymouth | 1 - 0 | W |
| 22 Sep | H | Nottingham Forest | 1 - 1 | D |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.70 | 37.0% | 06 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.60 | 27.8% | 06 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.40 | 41.7% | 06 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.58 | 63.3% | 06 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.35 | 42.5% | 06 Oct 06:15 |