| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 68.3% | 75% | -6.3% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 61.6% | 38.4% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 73.4% | 26.6% |
| logistic | 58.6% | 41.4% |
| Nicolai Budkov Kjaer | Matteo Martineau | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1670 | 1589 |
| Surface Elo | 1670 | 1589 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | -0.90 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 2.10 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.33 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.67 | 0.80 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 16 Oct | A | Hugo Gaston | 2 - 0 | W |
| 15 Oct | A | Moise Kouame | 1 - 0 | W |
| 13 Oct | A | Jakub Paul | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Matteo Martineau | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Hugo Gaston | 2 - 0 | W |
| 16 Oct | H | Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg | 1 - 0 | W |
| 15 Oct | A | Etienne Donnet | 2 - 1 | W |
| 13 Oct | H | Max Schoenhaus | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Mika Brunold | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct 2026 | Matteo Martineau | 2 - 0 | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.10 | 32.3% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.34 | 74.6% | 17 Oct 06:15 |