| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 63.6% | 67% | -3.1% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 64.0% | 36.0% |
| logistic | 65.8% | 34.2% |
| markov | abstained: no serve/return ratings for this match | |
| Matilde Paoletti | Martha Matoula | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1518 | 1534 |
| Surface Elo | 1518 | 1534 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.88 | 2.14 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.43 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.75 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 04 Nov | A | Ariana Geerlings | 2 - 0 | W |
| 02 Nov | A | Styliani Roussopoulou | 2 - 0 | W |
| 22 Oct | H | Mazzola, Alessandra | 0 - 2 | L |
| 16 Oct | A | Jessica Pieri | 1 - 2 | L |
| 15 Oct | A | Fornasieri, Chiara | 2 - 0 | W |
| 04 Nov | A | Marianne Argyrokastriti | 2 - 0 | W |
| 23 Oct | H | Rudiukova, Nina | 0 - 2 | L |
| 22 Oct | H | Golovina, Maria | 2 - 0 | W |
| 20 Oct | H | Sziedat, F | 2 - 1 | W |
| 13 Oct | H | Giorgia Pedone | 2 - 0 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.42 | 41.3% | 05 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.50 | 66.7% | 05 Nov 06:15 |