| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 58.5% | 55% | +3.9% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 81.2% | 80% | +1.6% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 74.4% | 71% | +3.4% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.6% | 70% | -10.8% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 54.6% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 58.9% | 20.6% | 20.5% |
| xgboost | 68.8% | 13.7% | 17.5% |
| logistic | 62.7% | 22.7% | 14.6% |
| Worthing | Solihull | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1522 | 1339 |
| Surface Elo | 1522 | 1339 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 2.50 | 1.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.33 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 2.33 |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 03 Oct | A | Gateshead | 2 - 1 | W |
| 03 Oct | A | Gateshead | 2 - 1 | W |
| 29 Sep | A | Yeovil | 1 - 1 | D |
| 29 Sep | A | Yeovil | 1 - 1 | D |
| 26 Sep | H | Halifax | 2 - 1 | W |
| 06 Oct | H | Newcastle United U21 | 2 - 1 | W |
| 03 Oct | H | Halifax | 0 - 2 | L |
| 03 Oct | H | Halifax | 0 - 2 | L |
| 29 Sep | A | Woking | 4 - 2 | W |
| 29 Sep | A | Woking | 4 - 2 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.50 | 28.6% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.00 | 25.0% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.83 | 54.6% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.42 | 70.4% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.70 | 37.0% | 09 Oct 06:15 |