| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 55.9% | 60% | -4.0% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 81.1% | 86% | -5.1% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 73.8% | 79% | -5.4% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.5% | 55% | +2.7% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 54.0% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 66.4% | 18.4% | 15.1% |
| xgboost | 52.5% | 25.6% | 21.9% |
| logistic | 54.1% | 23.5% | 22.4% |
| Harrogate | Sutton | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1452 | 1392 |
| Surface Elo | 1452 | 1392 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| Season points per game | 2.15 | 1.38 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.23 | 1.08 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.31 | 1.38 |
| Rest days | 13 | 14 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 6 W · 2 D |
| 17 Oct | A | Bury | 1 - 1 | D |
| 10 Oct | A | Woking | 1 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Woking | 1 - 0 | W |
| 03 Oct | H | Hornchurch | 3 - 0 | W |
| 03 Oct | H | Hornchurch | 3 - 0 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | Truro | 1 - 0 | W |
| 13 Oct | H | West Brom | 3 - 2 | W |
| 09 Oct | H | Boreham Wood | 0 - 2 | L |
| 09 Oct | H | Boreham Wood | 0 - 2 | L |
| 03 Oct | A | Kidderminster | 1 - 1 | D |
| 13 Apr 2024 | Harrogate | 2 - 2 | Sutton |
| 30 Jan 2024 | Sutton | 1 - 2 | Harrogate |
| 28 Jan 2023 | Harrogate | 0 - 1 | Sutton |
| 03 Sep 2022 | Sutton | 2 - 1 | Harrogate |
| 07 May 2022 | Harrogate | 0 - 2 | Sutton |
| 18 Dec 2021 | Sutton | 1 - 0 | Harrogate |
| 30 Nov 2019 | Sutton | 3 - 1 | Harrogate |
| 28 Sep 2019 | Harrogate | 2 - 0 | Sutton |
| 05 Jan 2019 | Sutton | 2 - 1 | Harrogate |
| 04 Aug 2018 | Harrogate | 2 - 2 | Sutton |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 4.50 | 22.2% | 24 Oct 12:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.75 | 26.7% | 24 Oct 12:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.65 | 60.6% | 24 Oct 12:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.95 | 51.3% | 24 Oct 12:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.85 | 54.0% | 24 Oct 12:30 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.70 | 21.3% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.80 | 26.3% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.69 | 59.2% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.85 | 54.0% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.93 | 51.8% | 24 Oct 06:15 |