| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 46.3% | 49% | -2.5% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Draw or away | 73.2% | 77% | -3.4% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 60.6% | 66% | -5.5% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.1% | 62% | -3.6% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 55.4% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 37.6% | 27.1% | 35.4% |
| xgboost | 24.5% | 35.1% | 40.4% |
| logistic | 27.6% | 28.2% | 44.2% |
| Las Palmas | Castellon | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1525 | 1592 |
| Surface Elo | 1525 | 1592 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| Form trend | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| Season points per game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 6 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 2 W · 1 D |
| 11 Oct | A | Mallorca | 1 - 3 | L |
| 11 Oct | A | Mallorca | 1 - 3 | L |
| 04 Oct | H | Valladolid | 2 - 2 | D |
| 04 Oct | H | Valladolid | 2 - 2 | D |
| 04 Oct | A | RC Recreativo de Huelva | 0 - 4 | L |
| 11 Oct | A | Andorra | 0 - 1 | L |
| 11 Oct | A | Andorra | 0 - 1 | L |
| 04 Oct | H | Ceuta | 1 - 1 | D |
| 04 Oct | H | Ceuta | 1 - 1 | D |
| 03 Oct | H | CF Lorca Deportiva | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Feb 2026 | Las Palmas | 1 - 1 | Castellon |
| 30 Nov 2025 | Castellon | 1 - 0 | Las Palmas |
| 27 Feb 2021 | Castellon | 4 - 0 | Las Palmas |
| 21 Oct 2020 | Las Palmas | 2 - 1 | Castellon |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.05 | 48.8% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.60 | 27.8% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.40 | 29.4% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.62 | 61.7% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.20 | 45.5% | 16 Oct 06:15 |