| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 46.9% | 40% | +6.9% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 73.9% | 77% | -3.1% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 59.5% | 56% | +3.2% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.5% | 51% | +2.2% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 54.8% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 39.8% | 25.8% | 34.4% |
| xgboost | 33.5% | 33.5% | 33.0% |
| logistic | 34.4% | 29.2% | 36.4% |
| Sociedad B | Granada | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1413 | 1416 |
| Surface Elo | 1413 | 1416 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.14 | 1.14 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.29 | 1.43 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.43 | 1.57 |
| Rest days | 8 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 2 W · 0 D |
| 26 Sep | A | Ceuta | 1 - 3 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | Mallorca | 0 - 1 | L |
| 12 Sep | A | Andorra | 3 - 1 | W |
| 05 Sep | H | Tenerife | 1 - 1 | D |
| 31 Aug | A | Burgos | 2 - 2 | D |
| 03 Oct | A | Atletico Malagueno | 0 - 2 | L |
| 26 Sep | H | Andorra | 2 - 3 | L |
| 26 Sep | H | Andorra | 2 - 3 | L |
| 20 Sep | A | Leganes | 2 - 3 | L |
| 20 Sep | A | Leganes | 2 - 3 | L |
| 22 Mar 2026 | Sociedad B | 0 - 2 | Granada |
| 04 Oct 2025 | Granada | 5 - 2 | Sociedad B |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 3.00 | 33.3% | 04 Oct 13:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.10 | 32.3% | 04 Oct 13:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 2.35 | 42.5% | 04 Oct 13:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.05 | 48.8% | 04 Oct 13:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.75 | 57.1% | 04 Oct 13:00 |