| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 68.1% | 81% | -12.6% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 68.6% | 31.4% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 80.5% | 19.5% |
| logistic | 63.3% | 36.7% |
| Roman Safiullin | Ilia Simakin | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1879 | 1743 |
| Surface Elo | 1879 | 1743 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.88 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.38 | 1.67 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.33 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 17 Oct | H | Ilya Ivashka | 2 - 1 | W |
| 09 Oct | A | Francisco Cerundolo | 0 - 2 | L |
| 09 Oct | A | Francisco Cerundolo | 0 - 2 | L |
| 07 Oct | A | Rinky Hijikata | 2 - 0 | W |
| 07 Oct | A | Rinky Hijikata | 2 - 0 | W |
| 17 Oct | A | Luka Pavlovic | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Martin Landaluce | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Martin Landaluce | 0 - 2 | L |
| 08 Oct | A | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | 1 - 2 | L |
| 08 Oct | A | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | 1 - 2 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.30 | 23.3% | 18 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.24 | 80.7% | 18 Oct 06:15 |