| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 54.8% | 49% | +6.0% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 79.4% | 78% | +1.2% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 71.5% | 67% | +4.3% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.0% | 58% | -1.8% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 52.8% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 29.6% | 22.9% | 47.5% |
| xgboost | 19.1% | 15.8% | 65.1% |
| logistic | 18.4% | 26.4% | 55.3% |
| Sociedad B | Almeria | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1385 | 1592 |
| Surface Elo | 1385 | 1592 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 3.00 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 0.89 | 2.33 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.33 | 1.78 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.89 | 0.56 |
| Rest days | 6 | 5 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 3 W · 1 D |
| 10 Oct | A | Celta B | 1 - 4 | L |
| 04 Oct | H | Granada | 2 - 3 | L |
| 26 Sep | A | Ceuta | 1 - 3 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | Mallorca | 0 - 1 | L |
| 12 Sep | A | Andorra | 3 - 1 | W |
| 11 Oct | H | Leganes | 3 - 0 | W |
| 11 Oct | H | Leganes | 3 - 0 | W |
| 11 Oct | H | Atletico Malagueno | 2 - 1 | W |
| 03 Oct | H | Burgos | 2 - 1 | W |
| 03 Oct | H | Burgos | 2 - 1 | W |
| 29 Mar 2026 | Almeria | 5 - 1 | Sociedad B |
| 29 Aug 2025 | Sociedad B | 2 - 2 | Almeria |
| 13 May 2022 | Sociedad B | 0 - 2 | Almeria |
| 21 Oct 2021 | Almeria | 3 - 1 | Sociedad B |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 1.86 | 53.8% | 17 Oct 13:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.60 | 27.8% | 17 Oct 13:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 3.90 | 25.6% | 17 Oct 13:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.70 | 58.8% | 17 Oct 13:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.10 | 47.6% | 17 Oct 13:00 |