| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 52.6% | 62% | -9.2% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 78.8% | 84% | -5.1% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 69.6% | 79% | -8.9% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.9% | 69% | -1.8% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 65.7% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 52.0% | 22.9% | 25.1% |
| xgboost | 55.8% | 24.4% | 19.8% |
| logistic | 49.7% | 27.0% | 23.4% |
| Go Ahead Eagles | Telstar | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1521 | 1482 |
| Surface Elo | 1521 | 1482 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| Form trend | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 0.67 | 0.33 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.67 | 1.67 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.67 | 2.33 |
| Rest days | 5 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 1 D |
| 18 Oct | A | Zwolle | 1 - 4 | L |
| 18 Oct | A | Zwolle | 1 - 4 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Sparta Rotterdam | 3 - 3 | D |
| 10 Oct | H | Sparta Rotterdam | 3 - 3 | D |
| 20 Sep | A | Nijmegen | 1 - 1 | D |
| 17 Oct | H | Feyenoord | 3 - 4 | L |
| 17 Oct | H | Feyenoord | 3 - 4 | L |
| 11 Oct | H | Den Haag | 2 - 2 | D |
| 11 Oct | H | Den Haag | 2 - 2 | D |
| 20 Sep | A | AZ Alkmaar | 0 - 1 | L |
| 08 Feb 2026 | Go Ahead Eagles | 1 - 1 | Telstar |
| 28 Sep 2025 | Telstar | 4 - 2 | Go Ahead Eagles |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 5.33 | 18.8% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.62 | 21.6% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.60 | 62.5% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.46 | 68.5% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.80 | 35.7% | 23 Oct 06:15 |