| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 73.3% | 79% | -6.1% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 65.4% | 34.6% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 70.4% | 29.6% |
| logistic | 75.3% | 24.7% |
| Denis Shapovalov | Sho Shimabukuro | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1846 | 1604 |
| Surface Elo | 1846 | 1604 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 0.00 |
| Form trend | 0.90 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.67 | 0.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 2 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 01 Oct | H | Sho Shimabukuro | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Hubert Hurkacz | 1 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Hubert Hurkacz | 1 - 2 | L |
| 27 Sep | A | Adrian Mannarino | 2 - 1 | W |
| 27 Sep | A | Adrian Mannarino | 2 - 1 | W |
| 01 Oct | A | Denis Shapovalov | 0 - 2 | L |
| 24 Sep | H | Hugo Gaston | 0 - 2 | L |
| 24 Sep | A | Hugo Gaston | 0 - 2 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | Arthur Rinderknech | 1 - 3 | L |
| 24 Aug | A | Miomir Kecmanovic | 0 - 2 | L |
| 01 Oct 2026 | Denis Shapovalov | 2 - 0 | Sho Shimabukuro |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.80 | 26.3% | 30 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.29 | 77.5% | 30 Sep 06:15 |