| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 70.3% | 68% | +2.7% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 61.7% | 38.3% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 66.2% | 33.7% |
| logistic | 71.1% | 28.9% |
| Matej Dodig | Tristan Boyer | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1854 | 1648 |
| Surface Elo | 1854 | 1648 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 3.00 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.90 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 1.71 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.43 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.29 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 15 Oct | H | Lukas Neumayer | 2 - 0 | W |
| 14 Oct | A | Pedro Martinez | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Francesco Passaro | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Tristan Boyer | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Lukas Neumayer | 2 - 1 | W |
| 15 Oct | H | Vilius Gaubas | 2 - 1 | W |
| 13 Oct | H | Alejandro Moro Canas | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Matej Dodig | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Vilius Gaubas | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Alejandro Moro Canas | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct 2026 | Matej Dodig | 2 - 0 | Tristan Boyer |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.55 | 39.2% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.48 | 67.6% | 16 Oct 06:15 |