| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 62.1% | 65% | -3.3% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 56.3% | 43.7% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 63.4% | 36.5% |
| logistic | 59.1% | 40.9% |
| Luka Mikrut | Carlo Alberto Caniato | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1790 | 1649 |
| Surface Elo | 1790 | 1649 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 3.00 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 2.63 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.88 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.63 | 0.25 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 26 Sep | A | Marvin Moeller | 2 - 1 | W |
| 25 Sep | A | Lukas Neumayer | 1 - 0 | W |
| 23 Sep | H | Kimmer Coppejans | 2 - 0 | W |
| 22 Sep | A | Federico Iannaccone | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Carlo Alberto Caniato | 2 - 0 | W |
| 26 Sep | A | Francesco Forti | 2 - 0 | W |
| 25 Sep | A | Jay Clarke | 1 - 0 | W |
| 24 Sep | H | Tom Gentzsch | 2 - 1 | W |
| 22 Sep | H | Lorenzo Berto | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Luka Mikrut | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep 2026 | Carlo Alberto Caniato | 0 - 2 | Luka Mikrut |
| 25 Aug 2025 | Carlo Alberto Caniato | 1 - 2 | Luka Mikrut |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.40 | 41.7% | 27 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.53 | 65.4% | 27 Sep 06:15 |