| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 59.7% | 48% | +12.0% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 50.4% | 49.6% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 33.9% | 66.1% |
| logistic | 41.4% | 58.6% |
| Lucio Ratti | Federico Coria | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1485 | 1588 |
| Surface Elo | 1485 | 1588 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 36 | 57 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 21 Sep | A | Federico Coria | 1 - 2 | L |
| 17 Aug | A | Dominic Stricker | 0 - 2 | L |
| 17 Aug | H | Ognjen Milic | 2 - 1 | W |
| 10 Aug | A | Khumoyun Sultanov | 0 - 2 | L |
| 10 Aug | H | Tai Sach | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Eduardo Ribeiro | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | H | Lucio Ratti | 2 - 1 | W |
| 27 Jul | H | Francesco Forti | 0 - 2 | L |
| 06 Jul | H | Guy Den Ouden | 1 - 2 | L |
| 06 Jul | H | Geoffrey Blancaneaux | 1 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep 2026 | Federico Coria | 2 - 1 | Lucio Ratti |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.00 | 50.0% | 22 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.75 | 57.1% | 22 Sep 06:15 |