| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 59.9% | 73% | -13.1% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 49.9% | 50.1% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 58.5% | 41.4% |
| logistic | 64.5% | 35.5% |
| Michael Geerts | Vladyslav Orlov | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1464 | 1310 |
| Surface Elo | 1464 | 1310 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 0.00 |
| Form trend | 0.90 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 0.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 5 | 153 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 22 Sep | H | Carlos Sanchez Jover | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | A | Carlos Sanchez Jover | 0 - 2 | L |
| 24 Aug | A | Jay Friend | 0 - 2 | L |
| 17 Aug | A | Lucas Poullain | 1 - 2 | L |
| 17 Aug | H | Radu Albot | 2 - 1 | W |
| 27 Apr | A | Mili Poljicak | 1 - 2 | L |
| 20 Apr | A | Sergey Fomin | 1 - 2 | L |
| 06 Apr | A | Nicolas Mejia | 1 - 2 | L |
| 30 Mar | A | Matias Soto | 0 - 2 | L |
| 23 Mar | A | Nicolas Villalon | 0 - 2 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.95 | 33.9% | 27 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.37 | 73.0% | 27 Sep 06:15 |