| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 61.0% | 32% | +29.3% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 85.9% | 78% | +8.3% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 69.5% | 42% | +27.3% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.0% | 67% | -16.7% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 49.5% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 31.5% | 25.3% | 43.2% |
| xgboost | 51.5% | 24.7% | 23.8% |
| logistic | 41.8% | 25.3% | 33.0% |
| Bournemouth | Liverpool | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1774 | 1769 |
| Surface Elo | 1774 | 1769 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| Form trend | -0.10 | -0.20 |
| Season points per game | 0.75 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.75 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 8 W · 0 D |
| 12 Sep | H | Brentford | 2 - 2 | D |
| 05 Sep | A | Newcastle | 2 - 2 | D |
| 29 Aug | H | Everton | 1 - 1 | D |
| 23 Aug | A | Manchester City | 1 - 2 | L |
| 24 May | A | Nottingham Forest | 1 - 1 | D |
| 12 Sep | H | Fulham | 0 - 0 | D |
| 04 Sep | A | Ipswich | 2 - 0 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | Nottingham Forest | 2 - 2 | D |
| 23 Aug | A | Newcastle | 2 - 2 | D |
| 24 May | H | Brentford | 1 - 1 | D |
| 24 Jan 2026 | Bournemouth | 3 - 2 | Liverpool |
| 15 Aug 2025 | Liverpool | 4 - 2 | Bournemouth |
| 01 Feb 2025 | Bournemouth | 0 - 2 | Liverpool |
| 21 Sep 2024 | Liverpool | 3 - 0 | Bournemouth |
| 21 Jan 2024 | Bournemouth | 0 - 4 | Liverpool |
| 19 Aug 2023 | Liverpool | 3 - 1 | Bournemouth |
| 11 Mar 2023 | Bournemouth | 1 - 0 | Liverpool |
| 27 Aug 2022 | Liverpool | 9 - 0 | Bournemouth |
| 07 Mar 2020 | Liverpool | 2 - 1 | Bournemouth |
| 07 Dec 2019 | Bournemouth | 0 - 3 | Liverpool |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 2.20 | 45.5% | 20 Sep 14:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.60 | 27.8% | 20 Sep 14:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 3.10 | 32.3% | 20 Sep 14:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.57 | 63.7% | 20 Sep 14:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.38 | 42.0% | 20 Sep 14:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.23 | 44.8% | 20 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.88 | 25.8% | 20 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.18 | 31.4% | 20 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.52 | 65.8% | 20 Sep 06:16 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.60 | 38.5% | 20 Sep 06:16 |