OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge

Back to 🏈 NFL on 2026-10-11

NFL · Sunday 11 October 2026, 17:00 UTC · finished

Pittsburgh Steelers – 34 - 22 – Indianapolis Colts

NFL forecast: home/away probabilities are conditional on no tie. Full-game moneylines include overtime; ties refund. Pick publication is disabled pending validation.

Our markets (latest run)

Market	Most likely	Model	Bookmaker	Edge	Result
1X2	Home win	60.8%	60%	+0.9%	✓ hit

Model breakdown (1X2)

Model	Home	Away
ensemble	60.8%	39.2%

Inputs the models saw

	Pittsburgh Steelers	Indianapolis Colts
playoff	0.00
elo diff	0.09
form diff	0.25
rest diff	0.36
home field	1.00
point diff	0.04
opponent strength diff	-0.06
Information cutoff (UTC)	2026-10-10T17:00:00+00:00

Pittsburgh Steelers: last 5

02 Oct	A	Cleveland Browns	24 - 27	L
27 Sep	H	Cincinnati Bengals	30 - 27	W
20 Sep	A	New England Patriots	3 - 20	L
13 Sep	H	Atlanta Falcons	20 - 13	W
13 Jan	H	Houston Texans	6 - 30	L

Indianapolis Colts: last 5

04 Oct	A	Washington Commanders	30 - 13	W
27 Sep	H	Houston Texans	19 - 17	W
21 Sep	A	Kansas City Chiefs	30 - 33	L
13 Sep	H	Baltimore Ravens	23 - 41	L
04 Jan	A	Houston Texans	30 - 38	L

Head to head

02 Nov 2025	Pittsburgh Steelers	27 - 20	Indianapolis Colts
29 Sep 2024	Indianapolis Colts	27 - 24	Pittsburgh Steelers
16 Dec 2023	Indianapolis Colts	30 - 13	Pittsburgh Steelers
29 Nov 2022	Indianapolis Colts	17 - 24	Pittsburgh Steelers
27 Dec 2020	Pittsburgh Steelers	28 - 24	Indianapolis Colts
03 Nov 2019	Pittsburgh Steelers	26 - 24	Indianapolis Colts
12 Nov 2017	Indianapolis Colts	17 - 20	Pittsburgh Steelers
25 Nov 2016	Indianapolis Colts	7 - 28	Pittsburgh Steelers
07 Dec 2015	Pittsburgh Steelers	45 - 10	Indianapolis Colts
26 Oct 2014	Pittsburgh Steelers	51 - 34	Indianapolis Colts

Bookmaker lines

Book	Market	Outcome	Odds	Implied	As of
Pinnacle sharp	1X2	home	1.65	60.6%	11 Oct 12:20
Pinnacle sharp	1X2	away	2.40	41.7%	11 Oct 12:20

Generated 2026-10-30 18:19 UTC