| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 53.8% | 61% | -6.8% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 79.2% | 88% | -8.7% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 70.6% | 82% | -11.0% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.4% | 49% | +5.2% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 55.0% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 45.2% | 30.2% | 24.5% |
| xgboost | 54.2% | 25.9% | 20.0% |
| logistic | 57.6% | 25.1% | 17.3% |
| Montpellier | Grenoble | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1502 | 1440 |
| Surface Elo | 1502 | 1440 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| Form trend | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 20 | 20 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 1 D |
| 18 Sep | A | Reims | 1 - 1 | D |
| 11 Sep | H | Pau FC | 1 - 0 | W |
| 05 Sep | A | St Etienne | 1 - 3 | L |
| 28 Aug | H | Boulogne | 0 - 0 | D |
| 21 Aug | A | Dunkerque | 1 - 0 | W |
| 18 Sep | H | Clermont | 1 - 1 | D |
| 11 Sep | A | Rodez | 1 - 0 | W |
| 04 Sep | H | Annecy | 1 - 2 | L |
| 28 Aug | A | Laval | 3 - 0 | W |
| 22 Aug | A | St Etienne | 0 - 4 | L |
| 17 Apr 2026 | Montpellier | 2 - 1 | Grenoble |
| 13 Dec 2025 | Grenoble | 1 - 1 | Montpellier |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 5.60 | 17.9% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.80 | 26.3% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.61 | 62.1% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.00 | 50.0% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.79 | 55.9% | 09 Oct 06:15 |