OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge

Back to 🎾 Tennis on 2026-10-09

🎾 tennis_atp_shanghai_masters · Friday 09 October 2026, 08:30 UTC · scheduled

Alexander Bublik 1.20 08:30 0.60 Tomas Machac

Our markets (latest run)

Market	Most likely	Model	Bookmaker	Edge	Result
1X2	Home win	53.5%	65%	-11.8%

Model breakdown (1X2)

Model	Home	Away
poisson	37.1%	35.2%
xgboost	45.1%	54.9%
logistic	59.5%	40.5%
markov	abstained: unknown match format (best_of=0)

Inputs the models saw

	Alexander Bublik	Tomas Machac
Elo (pre-match)	1901	1833
Surface Elo	1901	1833
Form, last 5 (PPG)	1.20	0.60
Form trend	0.30	-0.60
Season points per game	1.50	1.50
Season goals for / game	1.50	1.50
Season goals against / game	1.50	1.50
Rest days	7	2
Head-to-head (last 10)	2 W	0 W · 0 D

Alexander Bublik: last 5

09 Oct	H	Tomas Machac	2 - 0	W
01 Oct	H	Jakub Mensik	0 - 2	L
01 Oct	H	Jakub Mensik	0 - 2	L
04 Sep	H	Tommy Paul	2 - 3	L
02 Sep	A	Adrian Mannarino	3 - 0	W

Tomas Machac: last 5

09 Oct	A	Alexander Bublik	0 - 2	L
07 Oct	A	Zhizhen Zhang	2 - 1	W
07 Oct	H	Zhizhen Zhang	2 - 1	W
01 Oct	A	Alex Molcan	0 - 2	L
30 Aug	A	Toby Samuel	0 - 3	L

Head to head

09 Oct 2026	Alexander Bublik	2 - 0	Tomas Machac
16 Jun 2025	Alexander Bublik	2 - 0	Tomas Machac
26 Feb 2024	Alexander Bublik	2 - 1	Tomas Machac

Bookmaker lines

Book	Market	Outcome	Odds	Implied	As of
1xBet	h2h	Alexander Bublik	1.53	65.4%	09 Oct 06:01
1xBet	h2h	Tomas Machac	2.58	38.8%	09 Oct 06:01
888sport	h2h	Alexander Bublik	1.53	65.4%	09 Oct 06:01
888sport	h2h	Tomas Machac	2.50	40.0%	09 Oct 06:01
BetAnything	h2h	Alexander Bublik	1.53	65.4%	09 Oct 06:01
BetAnything	h2h	Tomas Machac	2.58	38.8%	09 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h	Alexander Bublik	1.55	64.5%	09 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h	Tomas Machac	2.78	36.0%	09 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h_lay	Alexander Bublik	1.57	63.7%	09 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h_lay	Tomas Machac	2.82	35.5%	09 Oct 06:01
BetOnline.ag	h2h	Alexander Bublik	1.53	65.4%	09 Oct 06:01
BetOnline.ag	h2h	Tomas Machac	2.62	38.2%	09 Oct 06:01
Betsson	h2h	Alexander Bublik	1.52	65.8%	09 Oct 06:01
Betsson	h2h	Tomas Machac	2.55	39.2%	09 Oct 06:01
Coolbet	h2h	Alexander Bublik	1.52	65.8%	09 Oct 06:01
Coolbet	h2h	Tomas Machac	2.55	39.2%	09 Oct 06:01
GTbets	h2h	Alexander Bublik	1.53	65.4%	09 Oct 06:01
GTbets	h2h	Tomas Machac	2.52	39.7%	09 Oct 06:01
LeoVegas (SE)	h2h	Alexander Bublik	1.53	65.4%	09 Oct 06:01
LeoVegas (SE)	h2h	Tomas Machac	2.50	40.0%	09 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h	Alexander Bublik	1.55	64.5%	09 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h	Tomas Machac	2.78	36.0%	09 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h_lay	Alexander Bublik	1.56	64.1%	09 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h_lay	Tomas Machac	2.80	35.7%	09 Oct 06:01
Nordic Bet	h2h	Alexander Bublik	1.52	65.8%	09 Oct 06:01
Nordic Bet	h2h	Tomas Machac	2.55	39.2%	09 Oct 06:01
Pinnacle sharp	h2h	Alexander Bublik	1.53	65.4%	09 Oct 06:01
Pinnacle sharp	h2h	Tomas Machac	2.66	37.6%	09 Oct 06:01
PMU (FR)	h2h	Alexander Bublik	1.47	68.0%	09 Oct 06:01
PMU (FR)	h2h	Tomas Machac	2.40	41.7%	09 Oct 06:01
SportyBet	1X2	away	2.60	38.5%	09 Oct 06:15
SportyBet	1X2	home	1.53	65.4%	09 Oct 06:15
Tipico	h2h	Alexander Bublik	1.52	65.8%	09 Oct 06:01
Tipico	h2h	Tomas Machac	2.35	42.5%	09 Oct 06:01
Unibet (FR)	h2h	Alexander Bublik	1.48	67.6%	09 Oct 06:01
Unibet (FR)	h2h	Tomas Machac	2.40	41.7%	09 Oct 06:01
Unibet (NL)	h2h	Alexander Bublik	1.53	65.4%	09 Oct 06:01
Unibet (NL)	h2h	Tomas Machac	2.50	40.0%	09 Oct 06:01
Unibet (SE)	h2h	Alexander Bublik	1.53	65.4%	09 Oct 06:01
Unibet (SE)	h2h	Tomas Machac	2.50	40.0%	09 Oct 06:01
William Hill	h2h	Alexander Bublik	1.53	65.4%	09 Oct 06:01
William Hill	h2h	Tomas Machac	2.50	40.0%	09 Oct 06:01
Winamax (DE)	h2h	Alexander Bublik	1.54	64.9%	09 Oct 06:01
Winamax (DE)	h2h	Tomas Machac	2.60	38.5%	09 Oct 06:01
Winamax (FR)	h2h	Alexander Bublik	1.50	66.7%	09 Oct 06:01
Winamax (FR)	h2h	Tomas Machac	2.55	39.2%	09 Oct 06:01

Generated 2026-10-30 17:09 UTC