OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-11
⚽ England Premier League · Sunday 11 October 2026, 15:30 UTC · finished
Liverpool 1.80 0 - 3 3.00 Manchester City
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Away win 47.0%40%+7.0%✓ hit
DCHome or away 75.5%76%-0.7%✓ hit
DNBAway (DNB) 59.8%54%+5.8%✓ hit
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 57.5%64%-6.6%✓ hit
BTTSBTTS yes 56.0%no line✗ miss
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson33.9%24.8%41.3%
xgboost30.2%29.9%39.9%
logistic32.1%25.6%42.3%
Inputs the models saw
LiverpoolManchester City
Elo (pre-match)17881929
Surface Elo17881929
Form, last 5 (PPG)1.803.00
Form trend-0.400.00
Season points per game1.501.50
Season goals for / game1.501.50
Season goals against / game1.501.50
Rest days2121
Head-to-head (last 10)3 W3 W · 4 D
Liverpool: last 5
06 OctADoncaster0 - 1L
22 SepARochdale3 - 3D
20 SepABournemouth1 - 0W
12 SepHFulham0 - 0D
04 SepAIpswich2 - 0W
Manchester City: last 5
20 SepHSunderland5 - 3W
13 SepAManchester United1 - 0W
05 SepHCoventry1 - 0W
28 AugACrystal Palace4 - 1W
23 AugHBournemouth2 - 1W
Head to head
08 Feb 2026Liverpool1 - 2Manchester City
09 Nov 2025Manchester City3 - 0Liverpool
23 Feb 2025Manchester City0 - 2Liverpool
01 Dec 2024Liverpool2 - 0Manchester City
10 Mar 2024Liverpool1 - 1Manchester City
25 Nov 2023Manchester City1 - 1Liverpool
01 Apr 2023Manchester City4 - 1Liverpool
16 Oct 2022Liverpool1 - 0Manchester City
10 Apr 2022Manchester City2 - 2Liverpool
03 Oct 2021Liverpool2 - 2Manchester City
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
SportyBet1X2away2.5040.0%09 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw3.7426.7%09 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home2.7636.2%09 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.5664.1%09 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under2.4540.8%09 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 19:19 UTC