| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 55.6% | 29% | +26.2% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Draw or away | 79.9% | 54% | +26.1% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 72.0% | 38% | +33.9% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.1% | 74% | -20.9% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 54.6% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 10.5% | 16.4% | 73.2% |
| xgboost | 23.6% | 29.0% | 47.4% |
| logistic | 24.6% | 26.7% | 48.8% |
| Tamworth | Leeds | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1438 | 1754 |
| Surface Elo | 1438 | 1754 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 3 | 16 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 03 Oct | A | Hartlepool | 1 - 0 | W |
| 03 Oct | A | Hartlepool | 1 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep | H | Sutton | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep | H | Sutton | 2 - 0 | W |
| 26 Sep | A | Aldershot | 1 - 5 | L |
| 22 Sep | A | Barnsley | 4 - 3 | W |
| 20 Sep | H | Crystal Palace | 0 - 0 | D |
| 14 Sep | H | Newcastle | 4 - 1 | W |
| 05 Sep | A | Brighton | 1 - 1 | D |
| 30 Aug | H | Brentford | 1 - 1 | D |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.40 | 29.4% | 06 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.10 | 24.4% | 06 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.88 | 53.2% | 06 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.35 | 74.1% | 06 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 3.15 | 31.8% | 06 Oct 06:15 |