| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 60.1% | 64% | -4.0% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 64.2% | 35.8% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 57.7% | 42.2% |
| logistic | 58.6% | 41.4% |
| Alexander Bublik | Tomas Machac | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1901 | 1833 |
| Surface Elo | 1901 | 1833 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 7 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 09 Oct | H | Tomas Machac | 2 - 0 | W |
| 01 Oct | H | Jakub Mensik | 0 - 2 | L |
| 01 Oct | H | Jakub Mensik | 0 - 2 | L |
| 04 Sep | H | Tommy Paul | 2 - 3 | L |
| 02 Sep | A | Adrian Mannarino | 3 - 0 | W |
| 09 Oct | A | Alexander Bublik | 0 - 2 | L |
| 07 Oct | A | Zhizhen Zhang | 2 - 1 | W |
| 07 Oct | H | Zhizhen Zhang | 2 - 1 | W |
| 01 Oct | A | Alex Molcan | 0 - 2 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | Toby Samuel | 0 - 3 | L |
| 09 Oct 2026 | Alexander Bublik | 2 - 0 | Tomas Machac |
| 16 Jun 2025 | Alexander Bublik | 2 - 0 | Tomas Machac |
| 26 Feb 2024 | Alexander Bublik | 2 - 1 | Tomas Machac |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.50 | 40.0% | 08 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.56 | 64.1% | 08 Oct 06:15 |