| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 70.5% | 79% | -8.9% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 66.1% | 33.9% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 65.6% | 34.4% |
| logistic | 71.1% | 28.9% |
| Benjamin Bonzi | August Holmgren | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1823 | 1580 |
| Surface Elo | 1823 | 1580 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 23 | 21 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 28 Sep | A | August Holmgren | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Sep | H | Karen Khachanov | 0 - 3 | L |
| 03 Sep | H | Ignacio Buse | 3 - 0 | W |
| 02 Sep | A | Alex Molcan | 3 - 1 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | Ignacio Buse | 1 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Henrique Rocha | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Andrea Guerrieri | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Benjamin Bonzi | 2 - 0 | W |
| 07 Sep | H | Vadym Ursu | 0 - 2 | L |
| 01 Sep | H | Felix Balshaw | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep 2026 | August Holmgren | 2 - 0 | Benjamin Bonzi |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.35 | 29.8% | 28 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.30 | 76.9% | 28 Sep 06:15 |