| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 74.7% | 78% | -2.8% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 66.1% | 33.9% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 69.0% | 30.9% |
| logistic | 71.1% | 28.9% |
| Sebastian Baez | Calvin Hemery | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1696 | 1627 |
| Surface Elo | 1696 | 1627 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | -0.90 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 1.80 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 10 Nov | H | Daniil Glinka | 2 - 1 | W |
| 02 Nov | A | Daniel Merida | 0 - 2 | L |
| 01 Nov | H | Tomas Machac | 0 - 2 | L |
| 31 Oct | H | Damir Dzumhur | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 Oct | H | Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard | 1 - 2 | L |
| 10 Nov | A | Shintaro Mochizuki | 2 - 1 | W |
| 09 Nov | H | Lucas Poullain | 2 - 1 | W |
| 08 Nov | H | Yanis Ghazouani Durand | 2 - 0 | W |
| 03 Nov | A | Philip Henning | 0 - 2 | L |
| 26 Oct | H | Robin Catry | 1 - 2 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.35 | 29.8% | 12 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.29 | 77.5% | 12 Nov 06:15 |