| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 52.3% | 62% | -10.2% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 46.4% | 53.6% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 56.7% | 43.3% |
| logistic | 49.3% | 50.7% |
| Alejandro Tabilo | Pablo Carreno Busta | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1811 | 1821 |
| Surface Elo | 1811 | 1821 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.33 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 7 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 2 W · 0 D |
| 10 Oct | H | Pablo Carreno Busta | 1 - 2 | L |
| 03 Oct | A | Denis Shapovalov | 1 - 2 | L |
| 03 Oct | H | Denis Shapovalov | 1 - 2 | L |
| 30 Sep | H | Tommy Paul | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep | H | Tommy Paul | 2 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Alejandro Tabilo | 2 - 1 | W |
| 08 Oct | A | Mariano Navone | 2 - 1 | W |
| 08 Oct | A | Mariano Navone | 2 - 1 | W |
| 02 Oct | A | Daniil Medvedev | 0 - 2 | L |
| 02 Oct | A | Daniil Medvedev | 0 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct 2026 | Alejandro Tabilo | 1 - 2 | Pablo Carreno Busta |
| 06 May 2026 | Alejandro Tabilo | 2 - 0 | Pablo Carreno Busta |
| 13 Oct 2025 | Alejandro Tabilo | 1 - 2 | Pablo Carreno Busta |
| 03 Jan 2022 | Alejandro Tabilo | 0 - 2 | Pablo Carreno Busta |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.40 | 41.7% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.60 | 62.5% | 09 Oct 06:15 |