OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-17
⚽ Netherlands Eredivisie · Saturday 17 October 2026, 19:00 UTC · finished
Sparta Rotterdam 0.40 3 - 2 0.20 Willem II
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 54.9%60%-5.3%✓ hit
DCHome or away 79.2%81%-1.8%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 71.8%77%-5.0%✓ hit
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 59.9%67%-7.2%✓ hit
BTTSBTTS yes 57.0%no line✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson58.3%23.3%18.4%
xgboost50.9%16.7%32.4%
logistic59.0%25.9%15.1%
Inputs the models saw
Sparta RotterdamWillem II
Elo (pre-match)14841337
Surface Elo14841337
Form, last 5 (PPG)0.400.20
Form trend-0.100.10
Season points per game0.500.00
Season goals for / game1.500.50
Season goals against / game3.502.00
Rest days76
Head-to-head (last 10)6 W2 W · 1 D
Sparta Rotterdam: last 5
17 OctAVolendam1 - 2L
10 OctAGo Ahead Eagles3 - 3D
10 OctAGo Ahead Eagles3 - 3D
03 OctABVV Barendrecht2 - 3L
26 SepHHoek3 - 0W
Willem II: last 5
11 OctAUtrecht1 - 3L
11 OctAUtrecht1 - 3L
19 SepHFor Sittard0 - 1L
19 SepHFortuna Sittard0 - 1L
15 SepAAjax1 - 5L
Head to head
02 Mar 2025Sparta Rotterdam4 - 0Willem II
31 Aug 2024Willem II1 - 2Sparta Rotterdam
13 Feb 2022Sparta Rotterdam1 - 0Willem II
06 Nov 2021Willem II0 - 3Sparta Rotterdam
28 Feb 2021Sparta Rotterdam0 - 2Willem II
13 Dec 2020Willem II1 - 3Sparta Rotterdam
30 Nov 2019Willem II4 - 0Sparta Rotterdam
04 Feb 2018Sparta Rotterdam1 - 0Willem II
18 Nov 2017Willem II2 - 2Sparta Rotterdam
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
SportyBet1X2away4.8220.8%16 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw4.5122.2%16 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home1.6660.2%16 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.4967.1%16 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under2.7037.0%16 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 19:22 UTC