OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge

Back to 🏈 NFL on 2026-10-25

NFL · Sunday 25 October 2026, 17:00 UTC · finished

Houston Texans – 21 - 27 – New York Giants

NFL forecast: home/away probabilities are conditional on no tie. Full-game moneylines include overtime; ties refund. Pick publication is disabled pending validation.

Our markets (latest run)

Market	Most likely	Model	Bookmaker	Edge	Result
1X2	Home win	67.2%	83%	-15.5%	✗ miss

Model breakdown (1X2)

Model	Home	Away
ensemble	67.2%	32.8%

Inputs the models saw

	Houston Texans	New York Giants
playoff	0.00
elo diff	0.23
form diff	-0.31
rest diff	0.02
home field	1.00
point diff	-0.21
opponent strength diff	0.14
Information cutoff (UTC)	2026-10-24T17:00:00+00:00

Houston Texans: last 5

18 Oct	A	Jacksonville Jaguars	34 - 31	W
11 Oct	A	Tennessee Titans	26 - 3	W
04 Oct	H	Dallas Cowboys	30 - 34	L
27 Sep	A	Indianapolis Colts	17 - 19	L
20 Sep	H	Cincinnati Bengals	6 - 20	L

New York Giants: last 5

18 Oct	H	New Orleans Saints	27 - 34	L
11 Oct	A	Washington Commanders	27 - 27	D
04 Oct	H	Arizona Cardinals	36 - 24	W
27 Sep	H	Tennessee Titans	12 - 7	W
22 Sep	A	Los Angeles Rams	6 - 28	L

Head to head

13 Nov 2022	New York Giants	24 - 16	Houston Texans
23 Sep 2018	Houston Texans	22 - 27	New York Giants
21 Sep 2014	New York Giants	30 - 17	Houston Texans
10 Oct 2010	Houston Texans	10 - 34	New York Giants
05 Nov 2006	New York Giants	14 - 10	Houston Texans
24 Nov 2002	Houston Texans	16 - 14	New York Giants

Bookmaker lines

Book	Market	Outcome	Odds	Implied	As of
Pinnacle sharp	1X2	home	1.23	81.3%	25 Oct 14:20
Pinnacle sharp	1X2	away	4.65	21.5%	25 Oct 14:20

Generated 2026-10-30 20:31 UTC