| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 63.7% | no line |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 43.4% | 56.6% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 27.2% | 72.7% |
| logistic | 33.4% | 66.6% |
| Matteo Berrettini | Alex De Minaur | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1844 | 2055 |
| Surface Elo | 1844 | 2055 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.90 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.71 | 2.45 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.45 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.14 | 0.55 |
| Rest days | 1 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 3 W | 2 W 路 0 D |
| 29 Oct | A | Flavio Cobolli | 1 - 0 | W |
| 26 Oct | H | Tomas Martin Etcheverry | 2 - 0 | W |
| 20 Oct | H | Kyrian Jacquet | 0 - 2 | L |
| 20 Oct | A | Kyrian Jacquet | 0 - 2 | L |
| 09 Oct | H | Brandon Nakashima | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Oct | A | Learner Tien | 2 - 0 | W |
| 26 Oct | A | Tomas Machac | 2 - 1 | W |
| 15 Oct | A | Alexander Zverev | 0 - 2 | L |
| 15 Oct | H | Alexander Zverev | 0 - 2 | L |
| 13 Oct | H | Karen Khachanov | 2 - 0 | W |
| 20 Oct 2025 | Alex De Minaur | 2 - 0 | Matteo Berrettini |
| 17 Mar 2025 | Alex De Minaur | 0 - 2 | Matteo Berrettini |
| 03 Jul 2023 | Alex De Minaur | 0 - 3 | Matteo Berrettini |
| 03 Jan 2022 | Alex De Minaur | 2 - 0 | Matteo Berrettini |
| 14 Jun 2021 | Alex De Minaur | 0 - 2 | Matteo Berrettini |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No bookmaker lines stored. | |||||