| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 51.4% | 54% | -2.9% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 79.1% | 84% | -4.9% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 69.7% | 76% | -5.9% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 54.8% | 57% | -2.1% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 51.1% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 53.3% | 25.7% | 21.0% |
| xgboost | 42.8% | 33.1% | 24.2% |
| logistic | 52.5% | 26.4% | 21.1% |
| Famalicao | Alverca | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1602 | 1513 |
| Surface Elo | 1602 | 1513 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | -0.80 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 1.14 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.29 | 1.29 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.57 |
| Rest days | 23 | 23 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 19 Sep | A | Nacional da Madeira | 4 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | A | Nacional | 4 - 0 | W |
| 13 Sep | H | Sp Lisbon | 1 - 1 | D |
| 05 Sep | A | Estrela | 2 - 2 | D |
| 30 Aug | H | Gil Vicente | 0 - 0 | D |
| 11 Oct | A | FC Oliveira do Hospital | 1 - 3 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | Rio Ave | 1 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Rio Ave | 1 - 0 | W |
| 12 Sep | A | Nacional | 3 - 1 | W |
| 05 Sep | H | Sp Braga | 1 - 2 | L |
| 16 May 2026 | Famalicao | 1 - 0 | Alverca |
| 04 Jan 2026 | Alverca | 1 - 0 | Famalicao |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 4.20 | 23.8% | 12 Oct 20:15 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.30 | 30.3% | 12 Oct 20:15 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.86 | 53.8% | 12 Oct 20:15 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.05 | 48.8% | 12 Oct 20:15 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.75 | 57.1% | 12 Oct 20:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.42 | 22.6% | 12 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.46 | 28.9% | 12 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.94 | 51.5% | 12 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.05 | 48.8% | 12 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.82 | 54.9% | 12 Oct 06:15 |