| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 54.4% | 54% | +0.0% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 81.1% | 81% | -0.3% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 74.5% | 73% | +1.2% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 46.9% | 57% | -9.9% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 50.6% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 47.5% | 29.0% | 23.5% |
| xgboost | 51.4% | 29.9% | 18.7% |
| logistic | 60.5% | 25.0% | 14.6% |
| Cambridge | AFC Wimbledon | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1557 | 1439 |
| Surface Elo | 1557 | 1439 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| Form trend | -0.20 | 0.10 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 7 | 8 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 22 Sep | A | Gillingham | 4 - 1 | W |
| 19 Sep | A | Oxford | 1 - 1 | D |
| 19 Sep | A | Oxford | 1 - 1 | D |
| 12 Sep | H | Reading | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Sep | A | Burton | 2 - 2 | D |
| 17 Sep | H | Milton Keynes Dons | 0 - 0 | D |
| 12 Sep | H | Doncaster | 1 - 0 | W |
| 07 Sep | A | Bromley | 2 - 0 | W |
| 02 Sep | A | Burton | 1 - 4 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | Wigan | 1 - 0 | W |
| 26 Mar 2022 | AFC Wimbledon | 0 - 1 | Cambridge |
| 30 Oct 2021 | Cambridge | 1 - 0 | AFC Wimbledon |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.30 | 23.3% | 25 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.70 | 27.0% | 25 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.84 | 54.4% | 25 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.05 | 48.8% | 25 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.76 | 56.8% | 25 Sep 06:15 |