| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 53.8% | 58% | -4.7% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 79.8% | 84% | -4.3% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 71.6% | 77% | -5.6% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.4% | 57% | -7.1% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 53.6% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 58.9% | 24.3% | 16.8% |
| xgboost | 56.7% | 24.5% | 18.7% |
| logistic | 57.3% | 25.0% | 17.6% |
| Grimsby | Shrewsbury | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1517 | 1361 |
| Surface Elo | 1517 | 1361 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 1 D |
| 26 Sep | A | Newport County | 1 - 2 | L |
| 26 Sep | A | Newport County | 1 - 2 | L |
| 22 Sep | A | Notts County | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | Crawley Town | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Crawley Town | 2 - 0 | W |
| 26 Sep | H | Colchester | 2 - 2 | D |
| 26 Sep | H | Colchester | 2 - 2 | D |
| 22 Sep | A | Tranmere | 0 - 1 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Crewe | 1 - 1 | D |
| 19 Sep | A | Crewe | 1 - 1 | D |
| 29 Dec 2025 | Grimsby | 1 - 0 | Shrewsbury |
| 09 Dec 2025 | Shrewsbury | 1 - 1 | Grimsby |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.60 | 21.7% | 02 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.90 | 25.6% | 02 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.71 | 58.5% | 02 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.74 | 57.5% | 02 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.00 | 50.0% | 02 Oct 06:15 |