| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 63.2% | 63% | +0.3% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 56.7% | 43.3% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 74.9% | 25.1% |
| logistic | 60.1% | 39.9% |
| Jaume Munar | Jenson Brooksby | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1827 | 1727 |
| Surface Elo | 1827 | 1727 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.90 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.67 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 2 | 10 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 08 Oct | H | Jenson Brooksby | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Carlos Alcaraz | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Carlos Alcaraz | 1 - 2 | L |
| 04 Oct | H | Kyrian Jacquet | 2 - 0 | W |
| 04 Oct | H | Kyrian Jacquet | 2 - 0 | W |
| 08 Oct | A | Jaume Munar | 2 - 0 | W |
| 27 Sep | H | Nikoloz Basilashvili | 0 - 2 | L |
| 27 Sep | H | Nikoloz Basilashvili | 0 - 2 | L |
| 25 Sep | H | Lorenzo Sonego | 2 - 1 | W |
| 23 Sep | A | Sebastian Baez | 2 - 0 | W |
| 08 Oct 2026 | Jaume Munar | 0 - 2 | Jenson Brooksby |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.45 | 40.8% | 07 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.58 | 63.3% | 07 Oct 06:15 |