| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 69.5% | 80% | -10.5% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 69.3% | 30.7% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 83.4% | 16.5% |
| logistic | 65.1% | 34.9% |
| Felipe Meligeni Alves | Lorenzo Claverie | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1597 | 1469 |
| Surface Elo | 1597 | 1469 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.83 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.83 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 3 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 14 Oct | A | Francisco Comesana | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo | 1 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Francisco Comesana | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo | 1 - 0 | W |
| 09 Oct | A | Thiago Seyboth Wild | 0 - 2 | L |
| 15 Oct | H | Mwendwa Mbithi | 0 - 2 | L |
| 13 Oct | H | Echazu, M | 2 - 0 | W |
| 06 Jul | H | Matias Soto | 0 - 2 | L |
| 06 Jul | A | Facundo Mena | 2 - 0 | W |
| 06 Jul | H | Nick Hardt | 2 - 0 | W |
| 26 Apr 2021 | Felipe Meligeni Alves | 2 - 0 | Lorenzo Claverie |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.70 | 27.0% | 18 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.25 | 80.0% | 18 Oct 06:15 |