| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 51.8% | 47% | +5.3% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 42.5% | 57.5% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 53.9% | 46.1% |
| logistic | 54.3% | 45.7% |
| Joel Schwaerzler | Federico Cina | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1633 | 1569 |
| Surface Elo | 1633 | 1569 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 9 | 15 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 08 Oct | A | Jack Pinnington Jones | 0 - 2 | L |
| 06 Oct | A | Felix Balshaw | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Jack Pinnington Jones | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Felix Balshaw | 2 - 1 | W |
| 03 Oct | H | Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg | 0 - 2 | L |
| 07 Oct | A | Alex Molcan | 1 - 2 | L |
| 02 Oct | A | Yanki Erel | 0 - 2 | L |
| 30 Sep | A | James Mccabe | 2 - 0 | W |
| 29 Sep | H | Yanki Erel | 0 - 2 | L |
| 29 Sep | A | Elias Ymer | 2 - 1 | W |
| 11 May 2026 | Federico Cina | 1 - 2 | Joel Schwaerzler |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.75 | 57.1% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.15 | 46.5% | 17 Oct 06:15 |